Trump-Themed Meme Token Unlock Countdown Begins! Market Fears Selling Pressure? | Crypto Alert | Tokenomics

4 min readApr 17, 2025

#Trump #Meme #Crypto

The official meme coin of U.S. President Donald Trump ($TRUMP) is set to unlock 40 million tokens on April 18, accounting for approximately 20% of its circulating supply. At the current price of $7.7 per token, the unlocked tokens are valued at $308 million. More importantly, this unlock will be executed via a cliff unlock mechanism — meaning the entire tranche will enter the circulating market all at once.

This large-scale token release could cause significant price fluctuations, especially given the resulting imbalance between supply and liquidity, potentially putting further downward pressure on the price. This represents the toughest challenge yet for the already fragile $TRUMP market. Let’s look at some numbers: since its launch on January 18, the token peaked at $80. It is now priced at $7.7, but its value has shrunk 83% from its all-time high. The number of $TRUMP holders has dropped from 817,000 at launch to 637,000. Currently, only 12,000 wallets hold more than $1,000 worth of $TRUMP tokens, down drastically from 143,000 on January 19.

The event has attracted widespread investor attention, especially from those interested in meme coins. They are debating the potential impact of the unlock — will $TRUMP, now already below $8, continue to fall? Could this unlock be the fatal blow?

Potential Impact of the Unlock Mechanism on Price

In crypto markets, cliff unlocks are widely regarded as the least price-friendly method of token release. Unlike linear monthly vesting, a cliff unlock releases all previously locked tokens at once at a specific point in time. As a result, in the absence of sufficient new buying interest, the market could face overwhelming selling pressure, severely disrupting the supply-demand balance.

This is especially true for meme tokens, whose prices are heavily driven by sentiment. When the market anticipates selling pressure from an upcoming unlock, panic can set in even before the tokens are sold, triggering a “price drops in advance” effect.

Community Sentiment and Risk Perception: Three Key Points to Watch

1. 70% of the Community Feels Bearish

Sentiment surveys across multiple platforms show that over 70% of users feel pessimistic about the upcoming unlock. They worry that the current market, which lacks solid support, will struggle to absorb the extra circulating supply. Even some loyal $TRUMP supporters have reservations, saying “the tokenomics design is immature” or “the release should not occur before the price stabilizes.”

It’s important to understand that sentiment is crucial for meme coins. Once sentiment flips, its speed and magnitude can exceed rational expectations — this is at the heart of current market anxiety.

2. $TRUMP’s Largest Holders Are Still Institutions

According to on-chain analytics tools Lookonchain and Arkham, the largest $TRUMP wallets remain controlled by known VCs and project-related addresses, which collectively hold more than 35% of the total supply. This concentration of holdings raises concerns about manipulation or sudden liquidity collapses. Post-unlock, these wallets will have significantly more tokens at their disposal, increasing market uncertainty.

Even if institutional wallets don’t sell immediately, retail investors often “self-liquidate” in anticipation of such actions, further pressuring prices. This psychological game can easily become a self-fulfilling prophecy.

3. Will This Unlock Break the Price Floor?

From a technical standpoint, $TRUMP currently has some support in the $6.8–$7.0 range, but this is considered a “fragile support zone.” If the price falls below the psychological barrier of $7 after the unlock, it could open up further downside risk, potentially sliding back to the $3–$4 range.

Such volatility is not uncommon in the meme coin space. In 2021, Dogecoin plunged over 30% following a negative tweet from Elon Musk. PepeCoin dropped 40% in one day after a major whale unlock. If $TRUMP fails to hold key support during this event, similar patterns could repeat.

Conclusion

Every token unlock marks a turning point in the market. For $TRUMP, this cliff unlock of 40 million tokens is a high-stakes test of resilience.

From a bearish perspective, factors like large volume, concentrated release, declining sentiment, and concentrated holdings may trigger a swift correction or even set off a chain reaction across the meme coin sector. On the flip side, if the project team proactively discloses plans, re-locks some tokens, or creates a transparent release path, it could turn panic into an “event priced in” moment — clearing the way for a future rally.

As one seasoned on-chain trader put it: “What really determines $TRUMP’s fate isn’t the unlock itself, but people’s attitude toward it.” The market is a battlefield driven by expectations — and the turning point lies in a shift in sentiment.