SuperEx丨Popular Science：The focus of attention among retail investors can be analyzed from Google Trends.

5 min readDec 13, 2024

#SuperEx #Google #Web3

In the investment field, changes in market trends are often influenced by multiple factors, among which the behaviors and interests of retail investors are a significant variable. Google Trends, as a free and publicly available data analysis tool, provides a window to gain insights into the investment hotspots of retail investors by tracking the search behaviors of global Internet users.

Logically speaking, Google Trends records the tag traffic from different IP addresses within the same time period. The same IP can only be counted once within a certain period of time, which endows Google Trends data with the “retail investor” attribute and makes it an excellent entry point for analyzing the focus of the retail investor market.

This article will start from data and cases to discuss how to use Google Trends to analyze the focus of retail investors and the potential significance of this information for investors and the market.

The Basic Principle of Google Trends and Its Investment Applications

Google Trends offers a keyword-based search popularity analysis, with the popularity ranging from 0 to 100, used to display the relative search volume of specific keywords in different time periods. Compared to simple data accumulation, it shows the changing trend of people’s interest in specific topics.

For investors, Google Trends has two notable applications:

1. Capturing short-term market sentiment: A rapid increase in the search volume of keywords may indicate an outburst of retail investors’ interest in a certain asset.

2. Observing long-term focus: Through the fluctuations of keyword trends, one can discover the continuous attractiveness of certain assets or industries.

For example, in the past year, “Bitcoin” and “Ethereum” have been at a high level in Google Trends for a long time, while “AI Stocks” and “Carbon Neutral Investment” witnessed significant growth in specific periods, and this phenomenon was often accompanied by key events in the market.

Case Analysis: Retail Investor Investment Hotspots in 2024

1.The Correlation between Bitcoin’s Search Popularity and Price Fluctuations

In 2024, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) rose from around $30,000 at the beginning of the year to $65,000 in the middle of the year, and its search popularity also experienced similar peaks. According to Google Trends data, the search volume soared at the following key time points:

· March: The US approved multiple Bitcoin spot ETF applications, and the search popularity related to “Bitcoin ETF” increased by 450% month-on-month.

· May — June: Bitcoin’s price broke through $60,000, and the popularity of keywords such as “Bitcoin Prediction” and “Bitcoin Price Target” reached their peaks.

The rise in Google Trends’ popularity reflects the intensified attention of retail investors to Bitcoin. Meanwhile, the price increase also attracted more non-traditional investors to participate. Many retail investors tend to buy when the market is booming, further driving up the asset price.

2. The Explosive Attention on Meme Coins

“Meme Coin” became another hot keyword in 2024. Google Trends data shows that the search popularity of coins such as “PEPE Coin” and “Shiba Inu” skyrocketed in the following periods:

· May: PEPE Coin rose by more than 500% within a week, and the search volume of the keyword “PEPE Price” increased by 1200%.

· October: Shiba Inu announced the launch of its decentralized finance (DeFi) project, and the search volume increased by 300% month-on-month.

These sudden surges in search popularity reflect retail investors’ strong interest in short-term high-return assets and also expose the high volatility and speculation in the Meme coin market.

3.The Attention Popularity of Artificial Intelligence-Related Assets

2024 is regarded as the breakout year for artificial intelligence applications, and “AI Stocks” has become another major focus of retail investors. Google Trends data shows that the search volume of “AI Stocks to Buy” increased significantly in the following stages:

· February: OpenAI announced that GPT-5 entered the commercial stage, and the related search volume increased by 280%.

· August: Tesla launched a new AI-driven chip, and the search volume of “AI Investment” increased by 350% month-on-month.

This trend indicates that retail investors are gradually shifting their attention from traditional high-risk assets such as cryptocurrencies to investment opportunities in emerging technological fields like artificial intelligence.

Skills for Extracting Investment Signals from Google Trends

1. Set keyword combinations: Monitor multiple keywords simultaneously (such as “Bitcoin Price”, “Bitcoin News”) to capture more comprehensive information.

2. Pay attention to regional differences: Analyzing the search popularity of a certain asset in different regions helps to judge the international market’s demand for the asset.

3. Combine with market data for verification: Combine the search popularity of Google Trends with data such as trading volume and price fluctuations to verify whether the search popularity reflects the actual market sentiment.

For example, in May 2024, while the Google search popularity of PEPE Coin soared, its 24-hour trading volume reached an all-time high, and the search popularity and market behavior formed a highly positive correlation.

Investors can adjust their investment strategies according to Google Trends data:

1. Prepare in advance for potential hotspots: When the search popularity of a certain keyword continues to climb but the price or trading volume has not yet reflected it, it may be a potential investment opportunity.

2. Avoid buying driven by market sentiment: When the search popularity soars, retail investors often enter the market en masse, and the asset price may be close to a high point, so caution is required.

3. Explore long-tail opportunities: Some niche assets show continuous growth in the search trend, which may imply potential medium- to long-term investment opportunities.

Suggestions for Investors from SuperEx

As a world-leading cryptocurrency trading platform, SuperEx provides abundant market data and tools to help users optimize investment decisions by using data such as Google Trends. SuperEx suggests that investors:

· Conduct comprehensive analysis of multiple data sources: Combine Google Trends with on-chain data, trading volume, and macroeconomic indicators.

· Diversify investments to avoid risks: Avoid investing too much in a single hotspot and diversify risks to improve the stability of the investment portfolio.

· Keep learning and observing: Pay attention to emerging trends in the market and enhance investment knowledge and capabilities.

Conclusion

Google Trends, as an important tool for gaining insights into the behaviors of retail investors, provides a window for investors to understand market sentiment. By using this tool reasonably, investors can better capture market hotspots and optimize investment strategies. However, investment is always accompanied by risks, and rational decision-making and thorough research are the keys to achieving long-term returns.